The Bears Might Think That They Are Drafting the Best Available Players. But They Aren’t.

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune addresses the Bears’ 2026 NFL Draft picks in the first three rounds. After saying some nice things about the picks, he ends his article by writing this:

Other than [Dillon] Thieneman, defensive coordinator Dennis Allen is still waiting for some more options. The Bears have a fourth-, a fifth- and two seventh-round picks Saturday. [Ryan] Poles understands questions about not getting bodies on the defensive line. Part of it is living at the back of the round where you have to see what unfolds.

“Obviously we have one more day, so we can continue to add,” Poles said. “Multiple ways to add throughout the spring and training camp and during the season. It’s hard to go into a draft and just start picking at your needs and hop around the board and letting all the good guys go by just because of that.

“That doesn’t play out very well in the long haul. We stuck to the board. Every class is going to be different. But like I said, when you’re at the back of the round, it’s a little bit different than being at the top-five, top-10 picks like we have been.”

That’s all well and good. But there’s a lot that it doesn’t explain.

The first three rounds in the NFL Draft are the ones where you find your starters. Here are the Bears’ picks:

Name Year Round Position School
Colston Loveland 2025 1 TE Michigan
Luther Burden III 2025 2 WR Missouri
Ozzy Trapilo 2025 2 OT Boston College
Shemar Turner 2025 2 DT Texas A&M
Dillon Thieneman 2026 1 S Oregon
Logan Jones 2026 2 C Iowa
Sam Roush 2026 3 TE Stanford
Zavion Thomas 2026 3 WR LSU

This list is revealing.

For one thing, all of these players are from big schools, something that the Bears under the combination of Poles and head coach Ben Johnson obviously now favor. That’s logical. With the most recent rule changes in college football, players can easily transfer from one school to another, and those who stand out at smaller schools can transfer to larger schools with no penalty where they know they will get more exposure.

But what really sticks out to me is that, out of a total of 8 top draft picks over the last two years, 6 have been offensive players. This is a serious statistical anomaly and one that may indicate a flaw in the scouting process.

There are 11 players on defense and 11 on offense. That’s an equal balance of 11 positions on each side. Statistically, you would expect the draft to break down into a 50-50 split of offensive and defensive players. And, indeed, that’s what the numbers show:

Draft Rounds Offensive players Defensive players
2025* 1–3 49 52
2026 1–3 52 48
  • Does not include Travis Hunter, who was a two-way player.

Why do the Bears’ drafts deviate from these totals? It may be due to the influence that Johnson has on the process.

Johnson is an offensive head coach. I would have thought that as someone who game plans for the offense, he would see a lot of good players on the opposing defensive side of the ball. Therefore, he should be able to recognize defensive talent as well as offensive talent. But, as an aggressive coach, it may be that he’s thinking more about what he can do with the players he sees on attack than he is about what Allen can do with players on the defensive.

One thing is almost certain. The imbalance is real and it is having an effect on the Bears’ roster.

I have no doubt that Poles really is “sticking to his board” and taking the best player available on it. But statistically speaking, there have to be an equal number of “best available” players when the Bears are picking between offensive and defensive players over time. And some of the time, the Bears are missing the best available player because that player is at a defensive position.

This is not to say that the players the Bears picked are bad. The 2025 draft was a very good one, filled with players that helped the team win games last year. There’s no reason to believe that the 2026 draft won’t be as good.

But if the Bears are truly sticking to their board, then it’s obvious that there is a bias somewhere in the Bears’ scouting process that determines how that board is stacked. And that means that they are probably passing on some players that could have made their draft even better.

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What about The Insiders?

The Insideers

Mike Florio at profootballtalk.com on ESPN’s acquisition of the NFL Network.

“It remains to be seen. NFL Network will have, at least for 2026, its own draft coverage. And all NFLN employees with remaining time on their contracts have become ESPN employees. When those contracts expire, all bets are off.”

“On Thursday, Andrew Marchand of The Athletic reported that ESPN is interested in retaining NFLN insider Ian Rapoport, whose contract expires on April 30. Later, Front Office Sports reported that ESPN views Rapoport and NFLN draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah as a potential succession plan for Adam Schefter (59) and Mel Kiper Jr. (65), respectively.”

“[Rapoport and Schefter] both do the same thing. They both eat from the same trough. Whether it’s Schefter or Rapoport, ESPN can drop him into any production, remind the viewers constantly about how much time he spends on his phone, and repeatedly proclaim him to be “the best in the business.”

I personally would very much miss coverage of the draft from the NFL Network. I find their style, particularly with Rich Eisen hosting, to be the best for my own tastes. I’d hate to see the diversity of our options reduced by this merger.

As far as Rapoport and Schefter as either or options, I’m not buying it. The NFL Network has Rapoport, Tom Pelissero, and Mike Garofolo all doing this job in their own way, and it makes for more complete coverage overall when they are all working together on different items. They all get together with Judy Batista to form the backbone of The Insiders, one of the NFL Network’s flagship programs.

As a side note, other than the fact that it’s nice to have a woman on The Insiders for balance, I see no reason why Schefter couldn’t move into her place. I very much enjoyed Batisa as a writer for the New York Times, and it would be wonderful to see her get back closer to her roots by doing more writing for ESPN.

Finally, on a personal note, if this means I’m going to have to see more of Michael Irvin, I’m going to put a gun to my head. ESPN fired him once, so…

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Does the NFL Really Need to Collude to Limit Fully Guaranteed Contracts?

Deshuan Watson, 2018, By Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA - Deshaun Watson, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=74518322
Deshuan Watson, 2018, By Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA – Deshaun Watson, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=74518322

Mike Florio at profootballtalk.com addresses the appeal in the latest round of the NFL’s legal issues:

Although the NFL won Round 1, the ruling included a finding that, at the 2022 annual meeting, the league invited (if not encouraged) teams to collude in the aftermath of the five-year, fully-guaranteed contract the Browns gave to quarterback Deshaun Watson. The arbitrator got it wrong, I believe, by ignoring the circumstantial evidence of actual collusion and accepting the predictable “we did not collude” denials from the witnesses called by the NFL.

Will the appeals panel set aside the obvious, self-serving claims and focus on the circumstantial evidence of actual collusion?

However it plays out, a ruling is coming. At some point. If/when the full document comes to light (hopefully they won’t try to hide it again), it could contain significant findings as to whether the league told the teams to collude — and whether they did.

I have a problem with this take.

Florio often provides great analysis when it comes to the NFL. This is especially true when it comes to its legal issues, presumably because he is a lawyer. I find his deep dives into long legal filings that are, of course, reams of paper in length to be important for anyone who is really interested in how the league works. His ability to distill these documents into more than a two-sentence summary of the complex and winding logic behind these legal issues is fascinating to me.

But, like everything you read, you have to sometimes take his conclusions with a grain of salt. Based upon my readings of his posts over many, many years now, it’s fairly obvious to me that most of his contacts are associated with NFL agents who represent players in negotiations across the league with all 32 teams.

This tends to bias Florio’s viewpoint. He’s often looking at issues from a player’s point of view. Worse, like any reporter, consciously or unconsciously, it’s natural to wonder when he’s writing his articles if he’s worried that his takes are angering his contacts and, therefore, are threatening his livelihood. The current post is a great example.

Is it that hard to believe that 32 teams would independently come to the conclusion that too many fully guaranteed contracts in a sport where injuries are so common would severely damage their business? That increasing the dead cap money associated with those contracts when they fail kills competition as teams cut their rosters to the bone to get under the cap?

If it’s obvious to me as a fan, surely it should be obvious to anyone with an unbiased point of view, let alone any owner with hundreds of millions of dollars at stake. And I don’t think it’s unreasonable for a judge to demand more than circumstantial evidence to prove a claim of collusion in such a case.

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Is Cornerback a “Want” or a “Need” in the NFL Draft?

Tyrique_Stevenson-2.jpg

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune answers your questions:

What do you think is the Bears’ biggest need outside of safety, edge and defensive tackle? — @oltmannsean

A couple of ideas pop into my mind. First, after those three positions, we’re starting to creep into what I would describe as “wants” more than “needs.” It sure looks like the Bears want to add a center they can bring along behind Garrett Bradbury. I would put cornerback in the want category and include wide receiver, linebacker, tight end and maybe running back. It will depend on how they feel about the players on the board. I think they’ll remain true to their grades or close to it.

It will also depend on how they feel about the players that they currently have on the roster. At cornerback, I’m not sure how comfortable they should be.

Jaylon Johnson **is a guy they are, of course, happy with on one side. And given the $13 million per year average that the Bears are giving him, they’d better be comfortable with **Kyler Gordon in the slot. But I’m not so sure about the other outside cornerback.

Do the Bears really want to go into the 2026 season with one of Zah Frazier, Jaylon Jones, Terell Smith, and Tyrique Stevenson as your starter at this position?

Whether this is a “want” or a “need” depends on your answer to the question, “Are these players that you can ‘get by with’”? Based upon what I’ve seen in the past from all of them except Frazier, who missed his rookie season for “personal reasons”, my answer is “no”. At one point, I was comfortable with Stevenson. But he has underperformed, ranking a well below average 52nd out of 114 qualifying cornerbacks in 2025 according to PFF.

None of these players shows the consistency to make me comfortable with them as a starting NFL cornerback. And that makes cornerback another need, not a want, in this year’s draft.

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The Bears Must Now Improve Their Roster the Same Way that Other Good Teams Do

Darnell_Wright_(cropped)-2.jpg

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune answers your questions:

How in the world are the Bears going to create needed pass rush with the players they have and a non-top draft pick? That’s even if they take a defensive end in the first round. — @kunistodd

Fair question and one that can lead us down a number of alleys because there are many layers to this.

The timing of the NFL offseason — free agency comes before the draft — and the fact the Bears have regularly taken big swings in free agency for a long time have obscured the reality that the draft should be the biggest part of the offseason. Smart teams find ways to get better in free agency, and sometimes that means investing in their own players to prevent them from eventually departing as free agents. That’s one way of saying when the Bears get around to signing right tackle Darnell Wright to an extension — and I’m not sure when that will happen — you should consider that expenditure in a different light.

I thought the Bears had really good synergy between the front office and coaching staff last year in terms of draft and development and finding free agents who were good fits for the scheme. If we can agree on that, then general manager Ryan Poles, coach Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Dennis Allen probably have earned some benefit of the doubt. Now, it will be more challenging this time as they had the 10th pick and three second-round picks a year ago, but no NFL team will take the field in Week 1 with the depth chart it has right now. There’s opportunity for the Bears to get better, and this is considered a deep draft for edge rushers.

Bears fans are going to have to adjust their attitudes when it comes to the desire to immediately fill holes on the teams’ roster. They aren’t in the position to just throw money at their problems anymore. And, without rehashing articles dating back to time immemorial, I’ll just say that’s a good thing because it almost never works and I’ll leave it at that.

The Bears are at a critical point where they are in balance. They can fall way and continue to build on their performance last year and get better. Or they can fall back to below average and pick in the top ten again next year.

If they can do the former then they, and their fans, are going to have to get used to their new reality. They are going to have to look to teams like the Packers and Steelers. These are just two of the organizations that, though they don’t make the playoffs and win the Super Bowl every year, have consistently competed at a high level for a very long time. They don’t ever have high, top ten picks. They don’t have the cap space of the cash to sign big name free agent. But they maximize their resources by drafting wherever they land and developing their players from there.

My advice to Bears fans is to hope that there are always questions, other than quarterback, going into training camp for years to come. If that is the case, it will mean that the front office and the coaching staff have managed to develop talent the ay that good teams do more often than not.

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Replacing Andrew Billings Presence Will Be a Problem

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Sean Hammond and Phil Thompson at the Chicago Tribune note that new Bears defensive tackle Neville Gallimore wanted to be a quarterback when growing up:

“See that’s the thing, that arm — that arm wasn’t cutting it,” Gallimore laughed. “When I watched David Garrard, (he was) a dominant player. (He) was one of the bigger quarterbacks who could run. So I thought, ‘Hey, man, that could have been me.’ I could run.

“That arm, though. That arm wasn’t where it needed to be. So I was like, ‘I’m just going to stay on the line.’”

That’s where Gallimore made an impact for the Indianapolis Colts last season, recording career highs of 3½ sacks, 13 quarterback pressures and 38 tackles.

The Bears let Andrew Billings sign with the Arizona Cardinals and inked Gallimore to a two-year, $12 million contract. That marks a notable change in approach. At 6-1, 340, Billings was a space-eating bulldozer. Gallimore signals a willingness to get more athletic in the trenches. His mentality, going back to when he was emulating Garrard as a kid, is all about athleticism.

Fair enough. The article emphasizes that the Bears got faster during free agency and Gallimore will undoubtedly contribute to that.

You don’t have to be a huge mountain of a man to stop the run. But I can say that when Billings was unavailable due to injury, the Bears’ ability to do that suffered greatly.

According to play-by-play data from the NFL, analyzed via nflfastR, in 2024 during the first half of the season with Billings, the Bears allowed 3.6 yards per carry up the middle with a success rate of 38% and an EPA per play of -0.3166 (favoring the defense). After Billings suffered a torn pectoral muscle against the Cardinals in week 9, those numbers increased to 4.3 yards per carry with a 62% success rate and a 0.1975 EPA per play (favoring the offense). That’s a huge swing.

Though Billings’ impact is harder to evaluate from 2025 when he was available all year, it is evident that Billings has had a huge impact on the run game that is going to be difficult to replace.

It all starts up front in the NFL. That’s where games are won and lost. The challenge now for the defensive line, both new free agent signings and draft picks, will be to penetrate and disrupt in a way that will replace Billings’ impact on the run game. If they do that, the Bears will be better. If, like the current players, they don’t, it’s going to be a long year defensively in 2026.

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This Is One of the Stupidest Things I’ve Ever Seen

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Via Mike Florio at profootballtalk.com:

Former NFL linebacker Darron Lee appeared in court on Monday for a preliminary hearing on charges of first-degree murder and tampering with evidence. And the case against him includes some unusual, and particularly incriminating, evidence.

Via Local 3 News, the prosecution offered testimony indicating that Lee had consulted ChatGPT on how to deal with a person who is unresponsive. The message came from Lee’s phone.

Lee also asked ChatGPT about the injuries that would be consistent with someone falling in the shower.

Body camera footage showed Lee telling a police officer that the victim, 29-year-old Gabriella Perpetuo, may have slipped and fallen in the shower but that Lee didn’t know what had happened to her. The police report in the case indicates that blood was found through the house, along with broken glass.

Authorities also said that Perpetuo had “multiple stab wounds, black eyes, bite marks, and blood coming from her nose and mouth.”

I don’t have a comment here. I just thought it would be nice to be reminded that no matter what you do, there are still people in the world who are stupider than you are.

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The Bears Conservative Approach to Free Agency Is the Right One

Ryan Poles.jpg

Phil Thompson at the Chicago Tribune on the Bears conservative approach to free agency:

[GM Ryan] Poles is taking the long view, not serving a short-term bid for a Super Bowl run that might not materialize next season. And then a season or two later, you’re in salary-cap hell with a roster of aging or injury-riddled stars.

The champion Seattle Seahawks were a model of building steadily but fairly quickly, with hardly a household name among their number.

Poles acknowledged he has to consider: “What’s going to help this football team now? But also being conscious of what’s going to happen down the road.”

“We want to sustain success,” he continued. “We talk about that a lot. In order to do that, we have to be very calculated with the moves we make. We felt like sticking with our plan going into free agency, that was the best thing for us.”

For years, Bears fans clamored for the team to be big players in free agency. And I’d say over the last 10 years that they have been with some big signings and big trades. And look where it’s got them. Not very far. Lots of big swings. Some hits. A lot of misses. I’m looking at you, Chase Claypool.

These largely expensive moves that have drained their resources have generally gotten them nowhere for very long.

Good franchises that are competitive year after year in the long term generally don’t operate that way. I look at teams like the Steelers, for instance, and I don’t see them out there chasing expensive free agents. These are draft and develop organizations that are very strategic in their free agent signings.

The Bears had that in the Jerry AngeloLovie Smith days of the franchise, and though they weren’t competing for a Super Bowl every year, they competed within the division more often than not.

Now the Bears appear to me to be set up better than they were in the Angelo days because they appear to me to have a better coaching staff with an offensive head coach that can compare favorably with anyone in the league.

The Bears are truly set up for sustained success. Now is not the time to go all in. The Bears need to be about value now.

It’s the time to get the best deal you can for under-the-radar talent and to let the organization make that talent worth more than what you paid for. That’s what good organizations do, and that’s what the team has to become.

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Sometimes Good Teams Have to Make More Out of What The Have

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Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune on the left tackle situation headed into the draft:

It’s not unlike the spot the franchise found itself in last offseason, sorting through a handful of options to play the position. There’s an injured player in the mix again, this time Ozzy Trapilo, who will miss at least a good chunk of the season as he recovers from a torn patellar tendon in his left knee. The Bears probably need to prepare for the possibility that Trapilo, a second-round pick in 2025, won’t be in the mix until 2027.

The difference this time around is the coaching staff has two experienced players to evaluate: Braxton Jones, who signed his one-year contract Friday, and Jedrick Wills Jr., a first-round pick (No. 10) of the Cleveland Browns in 2020.

Add Theo Benedet — who made eight starts last season, including seven at left tackle — and even Kiran Amegadjie into the mix and it’s unlikely the Bears will look at a left tackle with their first-round draft pick next month.

I think that what these moves tell me more than anything is that they don’t anticipate that a potential left tackle will be the best player on the board when the time comes for their pick. It also suggests to me that they don’t see the possibility of trading up for one.

As I talk to fans in the neighborhood and around the Internet, I hear a lot of hand-wringing over the state of the left tackle position. “Surely, they aren’t planning to go into the season with these guys! Surely they aren’t done!” After asking them not to call me Shirley, I try to point out to them that they very well might be done.

How many people reading this post thought going into last season that Nashon Wright would be tied for second in the NFL in interceptions with five? How many thought that Kevin Byard was going to be a first-team All-Pro?

Fans always want to see all pros at every position, and I do, too. But sometimes you can’t just buy those guys off the shelf. Sometimes you have to make them. And the more that time goes on and the more you have to pay players like Caleb Williams, the more of them you have to make.

That’s what good teams do.

I would describe Jones as “serviceable” when healthy. About league average, give or take five spots. Most would describe Wills as, perhaps, even a bit better.

Can the Bears make them better than that? Perhaps with good coaching they can. But even if they can’t, good coaches like Ben Johnson can make “serviceable” work. They have to. That’s their job. Because you can’t have a top-paid NFL player at every position.

Sometimes good teams have to work with what they have.

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Will Kyler Murray Really Be the Answer in Minnesota?

Dave Campbell writing for the Chicago Tribune on the Vikings acquisition of quarterback Kyler Murray after he was cut by the Cardinals:

Murray, despite being sidetracked by recent injuries and dogged by questions about his work ethic, has two Pro Bowl selections, a 67% career completion percentage — and a bonus of 3,193 rushing yards with 32 touchdowns.

After winning the Heisman Trophy at Oklahoma, Murray was voted the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and appeared to have the Cardinals on the upswing. He produced multiple electrifying highlights such as the “Hail Murray” in 2020, when he connected with DeAndre Hopkins for a game-winning touchdown pass against the Buffalo Bills on the game’s final play. Murray passed for 400 yards in a Week 2 win over the Vikings in 2021, when the Cardinals started 10-2 before finishing 11-6.

The Cardinals signed Murray to five-year, $230.5 million contract in 2022 with $160 million guaranteed, but the honeymoon after that hefty commitment was short. A few weeks after the deal was done, the Cardinals removed a strange clause in the contract that mandated four hours of “independent study” during game weeks. The kerfuffle called into question Murray’s work habits, and his relationship with the franchise was never the same.

My impression of Murray is that he’s been incredibly inconsistent his whole career. Although it’s hard to know from the outside looking in, it’s not hard to conclude that this stems from poor work habits. Anyone who threw anything at Murray that he didn’t expect likely had success against him.

There’s no denying Murray’s talent, and I think that Minnesota head coach Kevin O’Connell is a pretty good quarterback coach. It’s entirely possible that Murray will experience a renaissance under him and have a good year. But long term, Murray is unlikely to be the answer for any team as long as computer games supersede the kind of dedication to the game that seems to be required for most successful NFL quarterbacks.

I have serious doubts that the Vikings have solved their quarterback problem.

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